Sunday, June 16, 2013

Steve's barking don't always trust statistics

I remember when I was in grade school the socialist Norman Thomas gave an address to to our assembly.
Now the only thing I remember about his address was the statement he made figures lie and liars figure.
Statistics are numbers (figures) that address on going or previous situations.
What good are statistics anyway? There great for graphs. They should be good for probability. It can even sometimes can make a case for cause and effect.
When we in the United States make the case for life expectancy and our health care system shouldn't we through out death by guns and auto accidents? Doesn't that screwier the system?
When economist make a case against pumping money into the system shouldn't they look at the system more closely and differentiate an agricultural society, from an industrial society and a mixed society.

When we use statistics in baseball is the whole picture being taken in? When they say so an so bat 320 against lefties and only 230 against righties, does that statement  show what kind of hitter the batter is against right handed curve ball pitchers and fastball pitchers and the same for left hand pitchers. Are all the variances taken into account?

During the great depression when Roosevelt took his foot off the throttle the unemployment rate was 20%.
Statistic don't show what would have happened if the wages were paid to WPA workers were more the subsistence giving a greater discretionary income and perhaps self starting the private sector.

A greater worry about statistics is if the number aren't accurate to begin with.
Why shouldn't they be accurate?
Numbers can and are manipulated for self serving purposes.      

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